Market estimates reconciler

How many humanoid robots are there?

Short answer

Ranges of published global figures, not a verified fleet count or statistical confidence interval. Company-only counts, regional totals, capacity and forecasts stay separate.

Estimate dispersion

Published global unit figures for the latest completed year and half-year in this ledger. Bars preserve metric labels; values are never averaged or added. Rounded counts and thresholds retain their caveats.

There is no single verified fleet count in this ledger. Published figures measure different things: shipments, sales, production and installations. Compare their definitions before comparing their values.

Records last verified Oct 13, 2026 · Send a correction

Estimates for the same period

Each publisher keeps its own scope, metric and definition. These figures are observations of published estimates, not independent counts made by this site.

2024

2024 published estimates
PublisherMetric / kindScope / periodValuePublishedEvidence
GGIISalesEstimateChina2024~800 unitsNot statedSecondary only
Sources & caveats (secondary only)
The Paper [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

Approximately 800, attributed to GGII in The Paper's November 2025 coverage. The original GGII release, its publication date and its inclusion rules were not verified.

Original release opened: No · Verified Oct 13, 2026

2025

2025 published estimates
PublisherMetric / kindScope / periodValuePublishedEvidence
Counterpoint ResearchDeploymentsEstimateglobal202516,000 unitsJan 14, 2026
Sources & caveats
Counterpoint Research [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

Publisher-reported annual installations, mapped to deployments because the schema has no installations metric. Only the public headline was accessible; counting methodology and sustained workplace use were not verified.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

IDCShipmentsEstimateglobal2025~18,000 unitsSep 17, 2026
Sources & caveats
IDC [s1] ↗IDC [s2] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

Roughly 18,000 in IDC's September article; its April article says more than 18,000. Product inclusion rules are not supplied in these public articles.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

International Federation of RoboticsSalesEstimateglobal2025~7,000 unitsSep 30, 2026
Sources & caveats
International Federation of Robotics [s1] ↗Reuters via Devdiscourse [s2] ↗

Definition: Full-size humanoids taller than 140 cm, resembling humans and operating in human environments, intended for commercial and professional applications beyond research and entertainment.

Approximately 7,000. The official release adds a height threshold absent from Reuters' earlier coverage, which describes autonomous robots, permits wheeled designs and says many buyers used them for research or AI training. The descriptions are not fully reconciled.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

OmdiaShipmentsEstimateglobal general-purpose embodied intelligent robots2025~13,000 unitsNot stated
Sources & caveats
AgiBot via PR Newswire [s1] ↗Omdia (public copy hosted by AgiBot) [s2] ↗

Definition: Robots combining physical automation with cognitive AI, with an upright human-like torso and two arms, bipedal or wheeled mobility, AI-based learning and adaptation, and multimodal human interaction.

Approximately 13,000 in AgiBot's January 8 attribution; checked against the publicly hosted Omdia report. Exact original publication date is unstated. Detailed vendor tables are not reproduced.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

H1 2026

H1 2026 published estimates
PublisherMetric / kindScope / periodValuePublishedEvidence
Counterpoint ResearchShipmentsEstimateglobalH1 2026>22,000 unitsAug 20, 2026Secondary only
Sources & caveats (secondary only)
Counterpoint Research [s1] ↗RoboMorrow [s2] ↗DIGITIMES [s3] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

More than 22,000: value records the reported threshold. The original page exposed its title and publication date, but not the numeric article body. The count was checked in RoboMorrow's attributed coverage and DIGITIMES' public headline.

Original release opened: No · Verified Oct 13, 2026

IDCShipmentsEstimateglobalH1 2026nearly 25,000 unitsSep 29, 2026
Sources & caveats
IDC [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

Nearly 25,000, not an exact count. The original Chinese release refers readers to IDC's Worldwide Annual Humanoid Robotics Tracker Taxonomy, 2026 for definitions; that taxonomy was not accessed.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Smart Analytics GlobalShipmentsEstimateglobalH1 2026~19,100 unitsAug 10, 2026
Sources & caveats
Smart Analytics Global [s1] ↗

Definition: Functional embodied humanoid robots across full-size bipeds, half-size bipeds, wheeled designs and ultra-bionic designs. Leju KUAVO is included; Aelos and Roban are excluded.

Approximately 19,100. Scope and exclusions are stated in the public release; its subscriber spreadsheet was not accessed.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Company-reported figures

Company sales and cumulative production figures are kept with their own periods and scope; they are not added to industry estimates.

Company-reported figures
PublisherMetric / kindScope / periodValuePublishedEvidence
Unitree RoboticsSalesCompany ReportedUnitree Robotics2024412 unitsNot stated
Sources & caveats
Unitree Robotics via Shanghai Stock Exchange [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

Annual sales volume in the humanoid product category (registration draft, pp. 138-139). No formal inclusion criteria are supplied with the table; publication date unverified.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

UBTech RoboticsSalesCompany ReportedUBTech Robotics20251,079 unitsMar 31, 2026
Sources & caveats
UBTech Robotics [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

Annual sales volume for the announcement's full-size embodied intelligent humanoid products and services category (p. 10). No formal inclusion rules, height threshold or model allocation are stated there.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

Unitree RoboticsSalesCompany ReportedUnitree Robotics20255,215 unitsNot stated
Sources & caveats
Unitree Robotics via Shanghai Stock Exchange [s1] ↗

Definition: Company humanoid units counted as sales after the applicable revenue-recognition procedures.

Registration draft, p. 138. Separately reports 5,511 shipments; some shipped units awaited receipt or acceptance at year end. Publication date unverified.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

Unitree RoboticsShipmentsCompany ReportedUnitree Robotics20255,511 unitsNot stated
Sources & caveats
Unitree Robotics via Shanghai Stock Exchange [s1] ↗

Definition: Company humanoid shipments, excluding wheeled dual-arm robots; includes units dispatched but awaiting receipt or acceptance.

Registration draft, pp. 26 and 138. Sales were 5,215. Exact publication date unverified.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

AgiBotProductionCompany ReportedAgiBot's Shanghai facilitythrough 2024-121,000 unitsFeb 4, 2025
Sources & caveats
AgiBot via PR Newswire [s1] ↗AgiBot [s2] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

Cumulative production as of December 2024 in the dated release, not annual shipments. The undated Japanese company history instead places the 1,000th embodied robot in January 2025. Model scope is not specified.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

AgiBotProductionCompany ReportedAgiBotthrough 2025-12-085,000 unitsDec 8, 2025
Sources & caveats
AgiBot via PR Newswire [s1] ↗

Definition: Cumulative factory output across the A-, X- and G-series; the release includes full-size and half-size robots and task-oriented G-series robots.

Production milestone reached on December 8; this is neither a full-year shipment figure nor a count of customer-accepted units.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

Figure AIProductionCompany ReportedFigure 03 at BotQthrough 2026-04-29>350 unitsApr 29, 2026
Sources & caveats
Figure AI [s1] ↗

Definition: Figure 03 robots output by BotQ, allocated to internal R&D, data collection, housework and commercial-use development.

More than 350: value records the threshold as of the announcement. This is cumulative BotQ output reported as delivered robots, including internal allocations; customer deliveries and annual production are not separately counted.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

Production capacity

Capacity is a potential rate or a stated plan. It is never added to shipments or treated as deployed robots.

Production capacity
PublisherMetric / kindScope / periodValuePublishedEvidence
Agility RoboticsCapacityCapacityRoboFab, Salem, Oregon, USPeriod not stated10,000 unitsSep 18, 2023
Sources & caveats
Agility Robotics [s1] ↗

Definition: Annual factory production capacity for Digit robots when scaled to full capacity.

Claim is more than 10,000 per year; value records that threshold. Initial production was expected in the hundreds. Year of achieving full capacity was not stated.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

Figure AICapacityCapacityBotQ first-generation manufacturing linePeriod not stated12,000 unitsMar 15, 2025
Sources & caveats
Figure AI [s1] ↗

Definition: Annual humanoid robot manufacturing capacity of the first-generation BotQ line.

Up to 12,000 per year is a capacity claim, not realized output. The release does not date achievement of full capacity.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

TeslaCapacityCapacityFremont, California, USPeriod not stated1,000,000 unitsApr 22, 2026
Sources & caveats
Tesla [s1] ↗Tesla [s2] ↗Tesla [s3] ↗

Definition: Designed annual capacity of the first-generation Optimus line replacing the Model S and Model X lines.

Planned one million per year; year of reaching that rate is unstated. Q2 update still describes line installation and lists robotics capacity under construction without a numeric installed capacity.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

TeslaCapacityCapacityGigafactory Texas, USPeriod not stated10,000,000 unitsApr 22, 2026
Sources & caveats
Tesla [s1] ↗Tesla [s2] ↗Tesla [s3] ↗

Definition: Designed long-term annual production capacity of the second-generation Optimus line at Gigafactory Texas.

Planned ten million per year; target year unstated. Q2 update describes building construction, not achieved installed capacity or output.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Disclosed breakdown

Forecast ledger

Future estimates are attributed to the publisher and publication date. A forecast is not a realized shipment count.

Forecast ledger
PublisherMetric / kindScope / periodValuePublishedEvidence
TrendForceShipmentsForecastglobal2026>50,000 unitsJan 28, 2026
Sources & caveats
TrendForce [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

More than 50,000: value records the threshold. The release says by 2026 and cites year-on-year growth; it does not state detailed product inclusion rules.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

IDCShipmentsForecastglobal2030>510,000 unitsApr 23, 2026
Sources & caveats
IDC [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

More than 510,000 annual shipments; value records the threshold. Historical forecast vintage, subsequently raised in September 2026.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

IDCShipmentsForecastglobal2030>~750,000 unitsSep 29, 2026
Sources & caveats
IDC [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

More than approximately 750,000 annual shipments; value records the stated threshold. IDC explicitly raises its earlier forecast. Public release refers definitions to a separate taxonomy not accessed.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

BofA Global ResearchShipmentsForecastglobal203510,000,000 unitsMar 12, 2026
Sources & caveats
Bank of America Institute [s1] ↗

Definition: The Institute describes humanoids as service robots that use AI to move, sense and interact in human-like ways in complex, unstructured environments.

Annual shipments forecast attributed to BofA Global Research in the Institute's March 12 report. Its introductory definition does not specify the forecast's detailed product inclusion rules.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Goldman Sachs ResearchMarket SizeForecastglobal203538,000,000,000 usdJan 8, 2024
Sources & caveats
Goldman Sachs Research [s1] ↗

Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened

Total addressable market forecast from the original January report, not current revenue. The public redacted report provides the headline; no detailed forecast table was copied.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

OmdiaShipmentsForecastglobal general-purpose embodied intelligent robots20352,600,000 unitsNot stated
Sources & caveats
AgiBot via PR Newswire [s1] ↗Omdia (public copy hosted by AgiBot) [s2] ↗

Definition: Robots combining physical automation with cognitive AI, with an upright human-like torso and two arms, bipedal or wheeled mobility, AI-based learning and adaptation, and multimodal human interaction.

Annual shipments forecast stated on report p. 4. Exact original publication date is unstated; January 8 dates AgiBot's attribution release.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Citi GPSInstalled BaseForecastglobal2050648,000,000 unitsDec 2024
Sources & caveats
Citi GPS [s1] ↗

Definition: Robots resembling humans in body shape; the publisher models seven use cases spanning work and home.

Forecast stock across seven modeled humanoid use cases, stated in the report's p. 37 narrative; not annual shipments. Exact publication day is unstated. The broader AI-robot forecast includes other robot types.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Morgan Stanley ResearchInstalled BaseForecastglobal20501,000,000,000 unitsMay 14, 2025
Sources & caveats
Morgan Stanley [s1] ↗

Definition: Human-shaped robots with arms, legs and hands controlled by AI, as described in the public article.

Body and key takeaways say more than one billion humanoids in use by 2050; the standfirst says nearly one billion. Value records the one-billion threshold, not annual shipments.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Funding

Financing figures measure capital, not robots. Different time windows, currencies and funding definitions are not summed.

Funding
PublisherMetric / kindScope / periodValuePublishedEvidence
DealroomFundingFundingglobal20254,800,000,000 usdOct 6, 2026
Sources & caveats
Dealroom [s1] ↗

Definition: Announced VC rounds into VC-backed companies tagged in Dealroom's Humanoid sector, grouped by announcement date.

Full-year total in the October 6 update of a living chart first published July 23. Dataset may change as announced rounds are added; this is sector VC investment.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

DealroomFundingFundingglobal2026 YTD through 2026-10-0611,000,000,000 usdOct 6, 2026
Sources & caveats
Dealroom [s1] ↗

Definition: Announced VC rounds into VC-backed companies tagged in Dealroom's Humanoid sector, grouped by announcement date.

Snapshot through October 6, not a full-year forecast. Living dataset; the chart groups geography by company headquarters.

Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026

Method and caveats

This is a curated ledger of headline figures from opened sources. It is not a global census. Sources are linked for every row, with publication and verification dates kept separate. Unknown definitions display “not stated in the coverage we opened.” Null values remain unknown.

Secondary-only marks coverage whose original release could not be opened. It preserves attribution without presenting the coverage as direct access to the report. We do not reproduce paywalled tables. Leading qualifiers tied to a row’s value are retained in summaries and tables; the full original wording remains in its caveat.

Comparability requires the same period, geography, embodiment coverage and metric definition. Cumulative production is not annual shipments; installations are not necessarily shipments; funding is not market revenue. Forecasts and factory capacity do not establish deliveries. No total is calculated from overlapping estimates or company reports.

Coverage is limited to the records published here. Read the verification method or send a source-backed correction.

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