Market estimates reconciler
How many humanoid robots are there?
Short answer
- 2025: ~7,000 (International Federation of Robotics, Sales) to ~18,000 (IDC, Shipments) — different metrics and definitions
- H1 2026: ~19,100 (Smart Analytics Global, Shipments) to nearly 25,000 (IDC, Shipments) — different publisher definitions
Ranges of published global figures, not a verified fleet count or statistical confidence interval. Company-only counts, regional totals, capacity and forecasts stay separate.
Estimate dispersion
Published global unit figures for the latest completed year and half-year in this ledger. Bars preserve metric labels; values are never averaged or added. Rounded counts and thresholds retain their caveats.
2025 · global figures
Loading chart. The figures are in the table below.
H1 2026 · global figures
Loading chart. The figures are in the table below.
There is no single verified fleet count in this ledger. Published figures measure different things: shipments, sales, production and installations. Compare their definitions before comparing their values.
Records last verified Oct 13, 2026 · Send a correction
Estimates for the same period
Each publisher keeps its own scope, metric and definition. These figures are observations of published estimates, not independent counts made by this site.
2024
| Publisher | Metric / kind | Scope / period | Value | Published | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GGII | SalesEstimate | China2024 | ~800 units | Not statedSecondary only | Sources & caveats (secondary only)The Paper [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened Approximately 800, attributed to GGII in The Paper's November 2025 coverage. The original GGII release, its publication date and its inclusion rules were not verified. Original release opened: No · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
2025
| Publisher | Metric / kind | Scope / period | Value | Published | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counterpoint Research | DeploymentsEstimate | global2025 | 16,000 units | Jan 14, 2026 | Sources & caveatsCounterpoint Research [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened Publisher-reported annual installations, mapped to deployments because the schema has no installations metric. Only the public headline was accessible; counting methodology and sustained workplace use were not verified. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| IDC | ShipmentsEstimate | global2025 | ~18,000 units | Sep 17, 2026 | Sources & caveatsIDC [s1] ↗IDC [s2] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened Roughly 18,000 in IDC's September article; its April article says more than 18,000. Product inclusion rules are not supplied in these public articles. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| International Federation of Robotics | SalesEstimate | global2025 | ~7,000 units | Sep 30, 2026 | Sources & caveatsInternational Federation of Robotics [s1] ↗Reuters via Devdiscourse [s2] ↗ Definition: Full-size humanoids taller than 140 cm, resembling humans and operating in human environments, intended for commercial and professional applications beyond research and entertainment. Approximately 7,000. The official release adds a height threshold absent from Reuters' earlier coverage, which describes autonomous robots, permits wheeled designs and says many buyers used them for research or AI training. The descriptions are not fully reconciled. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| Omdia | ShipmentsEstimate | global general-purpose embodied intelligent robots2025 | ~13,000 units | Not stated | Sources & caveatsAgiBot via PR Newswire [s1] ↗Omdia (public copy hosted by AgiBot) [s2] ↗ Definition: Robots combining physical automation with cognitive AI, with an upright human-like torso and two arms, bipedal or wheeled mobility, AI-based learning and adaptation, and multimodal human interaction. Approximately 13,000 in AgiBot's January 8 attribution; checked against the publicly hosted Omdia report. Exact original publication date is unstated. Detailed vendor tables are not reproduced. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
H1 2026
| Publisher | Metric / kind | Scope / period | Value | Published | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counterpoint Research | ShipmentsEstimate | globalH1 2026 | >22,000 units | Aug 20, 2026Secondary only | Sources & caveats (secondary only)Counterpoint Research [s1] ↗RoboMorrow [s2] ↗DIGITIMES [s3] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened More than 22,000: value records the reported threshold. The original page exposed its title and publication date, but not the numeric article body. The count was checked in RoboMorrow's attributed coverage and DIGITIMES' public headline. Original release opened: No · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| IDC | ShipmentsEstimate | globalH1 2026 | nearly 25,000 units | Sep 29, 2026 | Sources & caveatsIDC [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened Nearly 25,000, not an exact count. The original Chinese release refers readers to IDC's Worldwide Annual Humanoid Robotics Tracker Taxonomy, 2026 for definitions; that taxonomy was not accessed. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| Smart Analytics Global | ShipmentsEstimate | globalH1 2026 | ~19,100 units | Aug 10, 2026 | Sources & caveatsSmart Analytics Global [s1] ↗ Definition: Functional embodied humanoid robots across full-size bipeds, half-size bipeds, wheeled designs and ultra-bionic designs. Leju KUAVO is included; Aelos and Roban are excluded. Approximately 19,100. Scope and exclusions are stated in the public release; its subscriber spreadsheet was not accessed. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
Company-reported figures
Company sales and cumulative production figures are kept with their own periods and scope; they are not added to industry estimates.
| Publisher | Metric / kind | Scope / period | Value | Published | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unitree Robotics | SalesCompany Reported | Unitree Robotics2024 | 412 units | Not stated | Sources & caveatsUnitree Robotics via Shanghai Stock Exchange [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened Annual sales volume in the humanoid product category (registration draft, pp. 138-139). No formal inclusion criteria are supplied with the table; publication date unverified. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
|
| UBTech Robotics | SalesCompany Reported | UBTech Robotics2025 | 1,079 units | Mar 31, 2026 | Sources & caveatsUBTech Robotics [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened Annual sales volume for the announcement's full-size embodied intelligent humanoid products and services category (p. 10). No formal inclusion rules, height threshold or model allocation are stated there. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
|
| Unitree Robotics | SalesCompany Reported | Unitree Robotics2025 | 5,215 units | Not stated | Sources & caveatsUnitree Robotics via Shanghai Stock Exchange [s1] ↗ Definition: Company humanoid units counted as sales after the applicable revenue-recognition procedures. Registration draft, p. 138. Separately reports 5,511 shipments; some shipped units awaited receipt or acceptance at year end. Publication date unverified. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
|
| Unitree Robotics | ShipmentsCompany Reported | Unitree Robotics2025 | 5,511 units | Not stated | Sources & caveatsUnitree Robotics via Shanghai Stock Exchange [s1] ↗ Definition: Company humanoid shipments, excluding wheeled dual-arm robots; includes units dispatched but awaiting receipt or acceptance. Registration draft, pp. 26 and 138. Sales were 5,215. Exact publication date unverified. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
|
| AgiBot | ProductionCompany Reported | AgiBot's Shanghai facilitythrough 2024-12 | 1,000 units | Feb 4, 2025 | Sources & caveatsAgiBot via PR Newswire [s1] ↗AgiBot [s2] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened Cumulative production as of December 2024 in the dated release, not annual shipments. The undated Japanese company history instead places the 1,000th embodied robot in January 2025. Model scope is not specified. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
|
| AgiBot | ProductionCompany Reported | AgiBotthrough 2025-12-08 | 5,000 units | Dec 8, 2025 | Sources & caveatsAgiBot via PR Newswire [s1] ↗ Definition: Cumulative factory output across the A-, X- and G-series; the release includes full-size and half-size robots and task-oriented G-series robots. Production milestone reached on December 8; this is neither a full-year shipment figure nor a count of customer-accepted units. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
|
| Figure AI | ProductionCompany Reported | Figure 03 at BotQthrough 2026-04-29 | >350 units | Apr 29, 2026 | Sources & caveatsFigure AI [s1] ↗ Definition: Figure 03 robots output by BotQ, allocated to internal R&D, data collection, housework and commercial-use development. More than 350: value records the threshold as of the announcement. This is cumulative BotQ output reported as delivered robots, including internal allocations; customer deliveries and annual production are not separately counted. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
|
Production capacity
Capacity is a potential rate or a stated plan. It is never added to shipments or treated as deployed robots.
| Publisher | Metric / kind | Scope / period | Value | Published | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agility Robotics | CapacityCapacity | RoboFab, Salem, Oregon, USPeriod not stated | 10,000 units | Sep 18, 2023 | Sources & caveatsAgility Robotics [s1] ↗ Definition: Annual factory production capacity for Digit robots when scaled to full capacity. Claim is more than 10,000 per year; value records that threshold. Initial production was expected in the hundreds. Year of achieving full capacity was not stated. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
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| Figure AI | CapacityCapacity | BotQ first-generation manufacturing linePeriod not stated | 12,000 units | Mar 15, 2025 | Sources & caveatsFigure AI [s1] ↗ Definition: Annual humanoid robot manufacturing capacity of the first-generation BotQ line. Up to 12,000 per year is a capacity claim, not realized output. The release does not date achievement of full capacity. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
|
| Tesla | CapacityCapacity | Fremont, California, USPeriod not stated | 1,000,000 units | Apr 22, 2026 | Sources & caveatsTesla [s1] ↗Tesla [s2] ↗Tesla [s3] ↗ Definition: Designed annual capacity of the first-generation Optimus line replacing the Model S and Model X lines. Planned one million per year; year of reaching that rate is unstated. Q2 update still describes line installation and lists robotics capacity under construction without a numeric installed capacity. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
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| Tesla | CapacityCapacity | Gigafactory Texas, USPeriod not stated | 10,000,000 units | Apr 22, 2026 | Sources & caveatsTesla [s1] ↗Tesla [s2] ↗Tesla [s3] ↗ Definition: Designed long-term annual production capacity of the second-generation Optimus line at Gigafactory Texas. Planned ten million per year; target year unstated. Q2 update describes building construction, not achieved installed capacity or output. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 Disclosed breakdown
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Forecast ledger
Future estimates are attributed to the publisher and publication date. A forecast is not a realized shipment count.
| Publisher | Metric / kind | Scope / period | Value | Published | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TrendForce | ShipmentsForecast | global2026 | >50,000 units | Jan 28, 2026 | Sources & caveatsTrendForce [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened More than 50,000: value records the threshold. The release says by 2026 and cites year-on-year growth; it does not state detailed product inclusion rules. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| IDC | ShipmentsForecast | global2030 | >510,000 units | Apr 23, 2026 | Sources & caveatsIDC [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened More than 510,000 annual shipments; value records the threshold. Historical forecast vintage, subsequently raised in September 2026. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| IDC | ShipmentsForecast | global2030 | >~750,000 units | Sep 29, 2026 | Sources & caveatsIDC [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened More than approximately 750,000 annual shipments; value records the stated threshold. IDC explicitly raises its earlier forecast. Public release refers definitions to a separate taxonomy not accessed. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| BofA Global Research | ShipmentsForecast | global2035 | 10,000,000 units | Mar 12, 2026 | Sources & caveatsBank of America Institute [s1] ↗ Definition: The Institute describes humanoids as service robots that use AI to move, sense and interact in human-like ways in complex, unstructured environments. Annual shipments forecast attributed to BofA Global Research in the Institute's March 12 report. Its introductory definition does not specify the forecast's detailed product inclusion rules. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs Research | Market SizeForecast | global2035 | 38,000,000,000 usd | Jan 8, 2024 | Sources & caveatsGoldman Sachs Research [s1] ↗ Definition: not stated in the coverage we opened Total addressable market forecast from the original January report, not current revenue. The public redacted report provides the headline; no detailed forecast table was copied. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| Omdia | ShipmentsForecast | global general-purpose embodied intelligent robots2035 | 2,600,000 units | Not stated | Sources & caveatsAgiBot via PR Newswire [s1] ↗Omdia (public copy hosted by AgiBot) [s2] ↗ Definition: Robots combining physical automation with cognitive AI, with an upright human-like torso and two arms, bipedal or wheeled mobility, AI-based learning and adaptation, and multimodal human interaction. Annual shipments forecast stated on report p. 4. Exact original publication date is unstated; January 8 dates AgiBot's attribution release. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| Citi GPS | Installed BaseForecast | global2050 | 648,000,000 units | Dec 2024 | Sources & caveatsCiti GPS [s1] ↗ Definition: Robots resembling humans in body shape; the publisher models seven use cases spanning work and home. Forecast stock across seven modeled humanoid use cases, stated in the report's p. 37 narrative; not annual shipments. Exact publication day is unstated. The broader AI-robot forecast includes other robot types. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley Research | Installed BaseForecast | global2050 | 1,000,000,000 units | May 14, 2025 | Sources & caveatsMorgan Stanley [s1] ↗ Definition: Human-shaped robots with arms, legs and hands controlled by AI, as described in the public article. Body and key takeaways say more than one billion humanoids in use by 2050; the standfirst says nearly one billion. Value records the one-billion threshold, not annual shipments. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
Funding
Financing figures measure capital, not robots. Different time windows, currencies and funding definitions are not summed.
| Publisher | Metric / kind | Scope / period | Value | Published | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dealroom | FundingFunding | global2025 | 4,800,000,000 usd | Oct 6, 2026 | Sources & caveatsDealroom [s1] ↗ Definition: Announced VC rounds into VC-backed companies tagged in Dealroom's Humanoid sector, grouped by announcement date. Full-year total in the October 6 update of a living chart first published July 23. Dataset may change as announced rounds are added; this is sector VC investment. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
| Dealroom | FundingFunding | global2026 YTD through 2026-10-06 | 11,000,000,000 usd | Oct 6, 2026 | Sources & caveatsDealroom [s1] ↗ Definition: Announced VC rounds into VC-backed companies tagged in Dealroom's Humanoid sector, grouped by announcement date. Snapshot through October 6, not a full-year forecast. Living dataset; the chart groups geography by company headquarters. Original release opened: Yes · Verified Oct 13, 2026 |
Method and caveats
This is a curated ledger of headline figures from opened sources. It is not a global census. Sources are linked for every row, with publication and verification dates kept separate. Unknown definitions display “not stated in the coverage we opened.” Null values remain unknown.
Secondary-only marks coverage whose original release could not be opened. It preserves attribution without presenting the coverage as direct access to the report. We do not reproduce paywalled tables. Leading qualifiers tied to a row’s value are retained in summaries and tables; the full original wording remains in its caveat.
Comparability requires the same period, geography, embodiment coverage and metric definition. Cumulative production is not annual shipments; installations are not necessarily shipments; funding is not market revenue. Forecasts and factory capacity do not establish deliveries. No total is calculated from overlapping estimates or company reports.
Coverage is limited to the records published here. Read the verification method or send a source-backed correction.